{"id":2708,"date":"2024-07-15T18:05:29","date_gmt":"2024-07-15T16:05:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.analyticsarts.it\/?p=2708"},"modified":"2025-09-22T12:54:31","modified_gmt":"2025-09-22T10:54:31","slug":"previsione-delle-serie-temporali-per-prevedere-i-prezzi-degli-orologi-di-lusso","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.analyticsarts.it\/it\/post\/previsione-delle-serie-temporali-per-prevedere-i-prezzi-degli-orologi-di-lusso\/","title":{"rendered":"Previsione delle serie temporali per prevedere i prezzi degli orologi di lusso"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wpb-content-wrapper\">[vc_row el_class=&#8221;.contenitore-come&#8221;][vc_column][mk_padding_divider size=&#8221;60&#8243;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/3&#8243;][vc_column_text css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1741788971950{margin-bottom: 0px !important;}&#8221;]\n<h2>ESIGENZA AZIENDALE<\/h2>\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;2\/3&#8243;][vc_column_text css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1741788992260{margin-bottom: 0px !important;}&#8221;]Una start-up di orologi di lusso desiderava una comprensione pi\u00f9 approfondita del mercato. Per questo motivo, Analytics Arts ha sviluppato un modello di forecasting per ottenere una precisa previsione dei prezzi, che potesse infine migliorare il processo decisionale. Inoltre, il progetto comprendeva simulazioni finanziarie per valutare i possibili scenari e il loro impatto sulla redditivit\u00e0.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row el_class=&#8221;.contenitore-come&#8221;][vc_column][mk_padding_divider size=&#8221;60&#8243;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/3&#8243;][vc_column_text css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1741789015944{margin-bottom: 0px !important;}&#8221;]\n<h2>METODOLOGIA<\/h2>\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;2\/3&#8243;][vc_column_text css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1741789003919{margin-bottom: 0px !important;}&#8221;]Abbiamo implementato un modello di previsione delle serie temporali che combina metodi statistici tradizionali e modelli avanzati di apprendimento automatico. Dopo aver raccolto ed elaborato i dati storici sui prezzi di un famoso produttore di orologi di lusso, abbiamo identificato tendenze, stagionalit\u00e0 e anomalie. Abbiamo validato diversi modelli, tra cui la decomposizione classica, lo smoothing esponenziale, i modelli autoregressivi, Random Forest, Prophet e le reti neurali. Le previsioni migliori provengono da un insieme di questi metodi. Ogni modello \u00e8 stato convalidato utilizzando metriche di performance e feedback di esperti, dando priorit\u00e0 a previsioni realistiche rispetto a quelle puramente accurate.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][mk_padding_divider][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/3&#8243;][vc_column_text css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1741789026955{margin-bottom: 0px !important;}&#8221;]\n<h2>RISULTATO<\/h2>\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;2\/3&#8243;][vc_column_text css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1741789021254{margin-bottom: 0px !important;}&#8221;]Abbiamo incluso un modello di simulazione Monte Carlo per stimare i rendimenti operativi della start-up sulla base dei prezzi previsti. Questa soluzione ha migliorato le previsioni dei prezzi, riducendo le scelte arbitrarie e fornendo previsioni precise. Ha permesso di anticipare meglio i movimenti dei prezzi, supportando decisioni di acquisto e di investimento informate. La start-up ha beneficiato di proiezioni realistiche dei prezzi, riducendo al minimo il rischio di pagare troppo o svendere gli orologi.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][mk_padding_divider][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/2&#8243;][vc_single_image image=&#8221;2725&#8243; img_size=&#8221;full&#8221; css=&#8221;&#8221;][\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/2&#8243;][vc_single_image image=&#8221;2723&#8243; img_size=&#8221;full&#8221; css=&#8221;&#8221;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][mk_padding_divider size=&#8221;20&#8243;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/3&#8243;][mk_button dimension=&#8221;outline&#8221; corner_style=&#8221;rounded&#8221; size=&#8221;large&#8221; url=&#8221;https:\/\/www.analyticsarts.it\/it\/casi-studio\/&#8221; fullwidth=&#8221;true&#8221; margin_top=&#8221;10&#8243; margin_bottom=&#8221;30&#8243; margin_right=&#8221;0&#8243; outline_skin=&#8221;custom&#8221; outline_active_color=&#8221;#5d97d1&#8243; outline_active_text_color=&#8221;#5d97d1&#8243; outline_hover_bg_color=&#8221;#5d97d1&#8243; outline_hover_color=&#8221;#ffffff&#8221;]TORNA INDIETRO[\/mk_button][\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/3&#8243;][\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/3&#8243;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][mk_divider style=&#8221;thin_solid&#8221; thin_single_color=&#8221;#6e99bf&#8221; margin_top=&#8221;40&#8243;][vc_column_text css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1741789050625{margin-bottom: 0px !important;}&#8221;]\n<h4>Altri Casi Studio<\/h4>\n[\/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][mk_blog_carousel count=&#8221;-1&#8243; order=&#8221;ASC&#8221; cat=&#8221;25&#8243;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A luxury watch start-up wanted a deeper understanding of the market&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5061,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2708","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-casi-studio-it"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - 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